SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 20
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Siena (22-5, 14-10-1 ATS) at (18) Butler (24-4, 11-17 ATS)
Butler, piling up victories at a rapid rate, steps out of Horizon League play for a Bracket Buster matchup at Hinkle Fieldhouse against the Saints, who lead the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.
Butler hasn’t lost since a 67-57 setback at Alabama-Birmingham on Dec. 22. The Bulldogs have followed with 16 consecutive victories, though they’ve gone just 7-9 ATS in that stretch. On Wednesday, they rolled over Illinois-Chicago 73-55, but fell short as a whopping 22½-point home favorite. Butler’s last nine wins have come by double digits, and for the year, it is averaging 70.0 ppg while allowing just 60.5.
Siena has been nearly as hot, going 16-1 SU in its last 17 starts (9-6-1 ATS in lined games). The Saints bounced back from the lone loss in that span – an 87-74 setback Feb. 12 at Niagara as a 3½-point chalk – by ripping Canisius 74-57 as an eight-point road favorite on Sunday. Siena is putting up 76.3 ppg and allowing exactly 10 less on average, at 66.3.
Siena has won Bracket Busters each of the last three years (1-2 ATS), including an 81-75 victory over Northern Iowa last year, though it failed to cash as a seven-point home favorite. Butler has played Bracket Buster contests each of the past four seasons, going 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS), including a 75-63 win at Davidson last year as a 4½-points underdog.
The Bulldogs have covered in their last four Saturday starts, but are otherwise in ATS ruts of 2-5 overall and 5-13 at home. The Saints, meanwhile, are on ATS surges of 11-5 outside the MAAC, 6-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 on Saturday and 5-1-1 on the highway.
Siena is on “over” streaks of 7-3 in non-conference action, 5-2 on Saturday and 39-19 in roadies against teams with a winning home record. Also, the total has gone high in nine of Butler’s last 14 non-conference games and is 11-1 in the Bulldogs’ last dozen Saturday outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Florida (18-8, 11-10 ATS) at Ole Miss (17-8, 12-8-1 ATS)
Two teams clinging to NCAA Tournament hopes get together when the Gators travel to Oxford’s Tad Smith Coliseum for an SEC contest with the Rebels.
Florida dropped Auburn 78-70 Thursday night to end a two-game SU hiccup, but it fell just short as a nine-point home chalk for its third straight ATS setback. The Gators are averaging 71.7 ppg on the road this year, while allowing just a shade less at 70.3 ppg, and they’ve struggled from long distance, hitting just 30.9 percent from 3-point range.
Mississippi has dropped four of its last five games (1-3-1 ATS), including the last two in a row, losing 71-63 at Mississippi State as a four-point pup on Feb. 11, then falling 82-78 Thursday night as a three-point home chalk against No. 17 Vanderbilt. The Rebels are racking up 82.1 ppg in Oxford this season, outscoring foes by more than 14 ppg (67.8).
Florida is on a 7-1 SU run (6-2 ATS) in this rivalry, notching a 78-68 home win last year but failing to cover as a 13½-point chalk. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last seven following a non-cover, but they own positive pointspread streaks of 6-2 on the road and 9-4 coming off a SU win. The Rebs’ current 1-3-1 ATS skid has all come in SEC play, and they are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home starts, though they are on ATS rolls of 12-5 following a non-cover and 26-11 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
The under is 16-7 in Florida’s last 23 starts overall, 13-3 in its last 16 Saturday games and 26-10-1 in its last 37 outings after a SU win. Conversely, Mississippi is on “over” stretches of 20-9-1 as a favorite, 4-1-1 after a SU loss, 9-3-1 at home and 5-2 against winning teams. In addition, five of the last seven in this rivalry have cleared the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
(22) Baylor (20-5, 12-6 ATS) at Oklahoma State (18-7, 11-7-1 ATS)
Baylor pursues its fourth straight victory when it travels to Stillwater for a Big 12 meeting with the Cowboys.
The Bears have won five of their past six games, including the last three in row, whipping Texas Tech 88-70 Tuesday as an 11½-point home chalk to halt a three-game ATS slide. Baylor is among the nation’s best shooting teams, hitting 48.8 percent from the floor (ninth), and they also defend extremely well, allowing just 37.5 percent shooting (sixth). With those stats in mind, it’s no surprise that they average 37.6 rebounds (ninth) and give up just 27.7 boards (19th).
Oklahoma State has struggled with its consistency of late. Over the past 12 games, it has won two in a row, followed by two losses, then three wins and three losses, before winning its last two games. The Cowboys ripped Oklahoma 97-76 last Saturday as an 8½-point home chalk, then beat Iowa State 69-64 Wednesday laying 2½ points on the road. The Pokes are 17-1 at Gallagher-Iba Arena going back to last season, including 12-1 this year, outscoring visitors by nearly 16 ppg this season (79.4-63.8).
These two teams have alternated victories, both SU and ATS, over the last five meetings, with the home team winning and cashing each time. A month ago, Baylor rolled 83-70 giving six points in Waco. The Bears are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes, and the chalk and the home team are on identical 6-0 ATS tears. In fact, the host has won the last eight in a row.
Baylor is on a bundle of positive ATS runs, including 12-5 overall, 12-5 on the highway, 7-1 as a road pup, 6-2 on Saturday and 11-5 against winning teams. Likewise, the Cowboys are on spread-covering sprees of 22-8-1 overall, 33-16-3 at home, 17-5-1 after a SU win, 15-5 after an ATS victory and 15-6 in the Big 12.
Baylor is on “over” surges of 10-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 9-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 8-1 after a SU win, 9-2 in the Big 12 and 6-2 on Saturday. Furthermore, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in seven of the last eight meetings. But Oklahoma State is on “under” streaks of 9-4 in Stillwater, 20-8 after a SU win, 6-2 after a spread-cover and 5-0 at home versus teams with a winning road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
Georgia Tech (18-8, 12-7-1 ATS) at Maryland (18-7, 13-8 ATS)
The surging Terrapins seek their ninth win in the last 11 games when they play host to Georgia Tech in an ACC clash at the Comcast Center.
Maryland bounced back from a 77-56 beatdown at Duke as a 9½-point pup last Saturday by posting a pair of wins. The Terps routed Virginia 85-66 laying nine points at home Monday, then beat North Carolina State 67-58 giving 4½ points on the road Wednesday to move to 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games. Maryland has piled up an average of 84.7 ppg at Comcast this year, on a stout 50.5 percent shooting, while giving up just 61.5 ppg on 36.6 percent shooting.
The Yellow Jackets stifled reeling North Carolina 68-51 Tuesday as a six-point home favorite, ending a 1-3 SU skid (0-3-1 ATS), with all three losses coming on the road in conference play – at Duke, Miami and Wake Forest. Georgia Tech gets outscored by just under a point per game on the road (72.2-71.6), and it has lost its last four roadies (1-2-1 ATS, all in the ACC).
Maryland has owned this rivalry lately, winning the last eight in a row (6-2 ATS), including a pair of victories last year – 68-61 at home as an eight-point chalk and 57-56 getting 2½ points on the road. The Terps are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the road team and the pup are on identical 5-2 ATS runs.
The Terrapins are on ATS rolls of 10-2 overall, 7-0 as a chalk, 5-0 at home, 9-2 against winning teams and 18-6 in ACC action. The Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 coming off a spread-cover, 5-2 ATS in their last seven on Saturday and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 following a SU win, but they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall (all in conference play).
The over for Maryland is on upswings of 5-1 at home, 9-3 with the Terrapins favored, 10-2-1 with the Terps a home chalk and 25-10 on Saturday. On the flip side, Georgia Tech is on “under” streaks of 7-2 overall, 7-2 in the ACC, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 on Saturday. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings overall and 4-1-1 in the last six starts at Maryland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND
(15) Texas (20-6, 9-13 ATS) at Texas Tech (16-9, 11-8 ATS)
The reeling Longhorns make the trek to Lubbock to battle Texas Tech in a Big 12 matchup at United Spirit Arena.
Texas was ranked No. 1 in the nation on Jan. 18, with a 17-0 SU record, but has since gone 3-6 SU and an even worse 2-7 ATS, including an 82-77 setback at Missouri on Wednesday as a 3½-point pup. For the season, the Longhorns average 83.5 ppg and allow 68.1, but on the highway, the numbers tighten up considerably, with Rick Barnes’ troops scoring 77.4 ppg and giving up 76.0.
The Red Raiders have been inconsistent at best over the past six weeks, going 4-7 SU (5-6 ATS), opening that stretch with a three-game skid that was followed by two wins, two losses, two more wins and two more losses. They followed a 72-61 road upset of Oklahoma with last Saturday’s 67-65 loss to Texas A&M laying one point and Tuesday’s 88-70 setback at Baylor getting 11½ points. Texas Tech averages 80.8 ppg at home and gives up an average of 70.2.
Texas has won nine of the last 10 in this rivalry (6-4 ATS), including the last three in a row, though Texas Tech has covered in the last two meetings. On Jan. 27 in Austin, the ‘Horns won 95-83, but fell short as a hefty 16½-point favorite. Still, Texas is on a 9-1 ATS tear on its last 10 trips to Lubbock and is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 matchups overall, and the road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
The Longhorns are on bevy of pointspread purges, including 2-11 overall, 3-12-1 in roadies, 2-8 laying points, 1-5 as a road chalk, 6-20-1 in the Big 12, 1-5 on Saturday and 2-10 against winning teams. The Red Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home starts and 5-1 ATS in their last six as a pup of under six points, but they are on a 2-5 ATS skid as a home pup of that same price.
In this rivalry, the under is 6-1-1 in the last eight Lubbock clashes. However, Texas is on “over” tears of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 7-2 on the highway, 5-1 laying points, 5-1 as a road favorite and 7-2 against winning teams. Likewise, Tech sports “over” streaks of 37-16-2 overall, 26-10-2 as a pup, 20-8-2 after a SU loss and 15-6 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Illinois (17-9, 10-15 ATS) at (4) Purdue (22-3, 12-12-1 ATS)
The surging Boilermakers go after their ninth consecutive victory and a season series sweep of Illinois when these Big Ten rivals clash at Mackey Arena.
The Illini have had six days to digest Sunday’s ugly 72-53 home loss to Ohio State as a two-point home underdog, snapping a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS). Part of that winning streak included three straight Big Ten road victories (SU and ATS) at Penn State (77-67), Iowa (57-49) and Wisconsin (63-56). Illinois is 4-2 SU and ATS in conference roadies, allowing just 63 ppg in those contests.
Purdue also is coming off a game against Ohio State, but unlike Illinois, it dominated the ninth-ranked Buckeyes most of the way Wednesday then held on down the stretch for a 60-57 upset victory as a 3½-point road underdog. The Boilermakers have won eight in a row, all in conference, with half of the victories being double-digit blowouts. Also, they’ve followed up a 4-9 ATS downturn by cashing in their last three games in a row.
Purdue has won 19 of its last 21 at home, including 12 of 14 conference home games. This year, the Boilers are 12-1 at Mackey Arena (7-6 ATS), outscoring visitors by 18.1 ppg (75.3-57.2) and outshooting them 46.7 percent to 38.7 percent.
The Boilermakers’ current winning streak began with an 84-78 win at Illinois as a five-point road chalk on Jan. 19. Purdue also topped the Illini 66-56 as a three-point favorite in last year’s Big Ten tournament, ending a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Illinois (including the Illini’s 71-67 overtime win at Purdue last year as an eight-point road underdog). The Boilermakers are still 9-4-1 ATS in the last 13 series clashes and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven in West Lafayette. Finally, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last eight head-to-head battles.
The Illini have covered in four of their last five road games, but they’re in ATS funks of 3-7 versus winning teams, 2-7 on Saturday and 0-4 when coming off a double-digit home loss. Purdue’s 4-1 ATS run overall is offset by a 1-4 ATS mark in its last five Saturday outings and a 5-12-1 ATS rut following a spread-cover.
Illinois is riding “over” streaks of 17-7 overall, 8-2 on Saturday, 6-1 versus winning teams, 8-1 after a SU defeat and 9-4 after a non-cover. Conversely, for Purdue, the under is on surges of 5-2 overall (all in conference) and 4-0 at home. Finally, six of the last seven meetings between these squads – including last month’s battle at Illinois – have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE
(2) Kentucky (25-1, 13-11 ATS) at (17) Vanderbilt (20-5, 13-10 ATS)
The top two teams in the SEC hook up for the second time in three weeks, with Kentucky gunning for a season sweep of the Commodores, who return to Memorial Gym in Nashville looking for a fourth straight win.
The Wildcats needed overtime to dispose of Mississippi State on Tuesday, but they got the job done, winning 81-75 and cashing as a 2½-point road favorite. Kentucky, which trailed Mississippi State by seven points with less than three minutes to play in regulation, has now won six in a row (4-2 ATS) since suffering its first and only loss of the year (68-62 at South Carolina on Jan. 26). John Calipari’s squad is 10-1 (6-5 ATS) in SEC action and 8-1 (6-3 ATS) in road/neutral-site games this year. The ‘Cats outscore opponents by exactly 10 ppg away from Rupp Arena (79.2-69.2) and they shoot 47 percent, while holding the opposition to 38.4 percent.
Vanderbilt outlasted Ole Miss 82-78 as a three-point road underdog on Thursday, picking up its third straight win (2-1 ATS) and its 14th victory in the last 16 games. During the 14-2 run, the Commodores are 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS in SEC action. Also, they’ve won 18 straight home games overall (10 in a row versus SEC opponents). This year, they’re 13-0 at Memorial Gym (6-5 ATS in lined action), outscoring visitors by 18 ppg (84.2-66.2) while making 51.6 percent of its shots versus 38.4 percent for the opponent.
The Wildcats dominated Vandy 85-72 as an 8½-point home favorite on Jan. 30, cashing for the 11th time in the last 16 meetings. Kentucky shot 52.2 percent from three-point land (12-for-23), and DeMarcus Cousins (21 points, 10 rebounds) recorded a double-double in leading five players in double-figure scoring.
The home team has won six in a row in this series, cashing in each of the last five. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in those five games.
Kentucky has now covered in consecutive games, ending an 11-game stretch in which it alternated ATS wins and losses. Still, the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six after a spread-cover, but they’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight on the highway and they’ve covered in four straight Saturday contests. On the flip side, the Commodores are 0-4 ATS in their last four on Saturday, but 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against winning teams.
The Wildcats have topped the total in 12 of their last 17 games overall, and Vandy is on “over” runs of 8-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 19-7 in SEC action and 6-1 after a SU win. Also, four of the last five series clashes between these two in Nashville have eclipsed the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Wichita State (22-6, 10-10-1 ATS) at Utah State (21-6, 14-9 ATS)
This year’s slate of Bracket Buster games ends with arguably the most intriguing matchup of all, as Wichita State heads to the Smith Spectrum in Logan, Utah, for a clash with the red-hot Aggies.
The Shockers are coming off a pair of narrow Missouri Valley Conference home wins this week over Missouri State (66-64 on Sunday) and Evansville (76-70 in overtime on Wednesday), but they’re just 6-4 SU in their last 10 after a 16-2 start to the season. Also, they failed to cover as a heavy favorite against both Missouri State and Evansville and are now 0-4 ATS in their last four and 2-6 ATS in their last eight. Wichita State is 11-5 in the Missouri Valley, good for second place behind Northern Iowa.
Utah State lost its first two WAC games of the season, both on the road, but has since ripped off 11 consecutive wins (9-2 ATS). Most recently, the Aggies dropped Louisiana Tech 67-61 on Wednesday, but fell short as a 12-point home chalk. Utah State, which has won 15 of its last 17 overall, sits atop the Western Athletic Conference standings at 11-2.
Wichita State has split 12 road/neutral-site games this year (5-5-1 ATS in lined roadies), and it averages just 64.1 ppg on the highway while giving up 62.6. On the other hand, Utah State is 14-1 SU and 8-4 ATS at home this year, and it has won 48 of its last 49 games in Logan, the lone blemish being a 68-63 loss to St. Mary’s as a six-point chalk on Dec. 5. The Aggies are putting up 79.5 ppg at home this season (50.7 percent shooting overall, 45.7 percent from three-point range) while giving up 60.1 ppg (39.9 percent shooting overall, 33.7 percent from three-point range).
This is the first meeting between these teams, but both are frequent “Bracket Buster” participants. Wichita State topped Cleveland State 70-59 as a one-point home underdog last year, ending a four-game SU and ATS “Bracket Buster” losing skid. Utah State lost at St. Mary’s 75-64 as a four-point underdog in last year’s “Bracket Buster” contest, ending a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) in this made-for-TV event.
Wichita State has cashed in 13 of its last 19 non-conference games, but is otherwise in the midst of pointspread dips of 0-4 overall, 1-4-1 on Saturday and 1-4-1 after a SU win. However, the Missouri Valley Conference is 14-5 ATS the last two years in “Bracket Buster” games.
The Aggies have failed to cover in four of their last five non-league games, but otherwise they’re on ATS rolls of 9-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-0 on Saturday, 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 versus Missouri Valley clubs and 15-5-1 after a non-cover.
The over is on runs of 6-1 for the Shockers in non-conference play, 14-4 for the Shockers on Saturday, 17-8 for the Shockers after a non-cover and 9-0 for Utah State after a non-cover. Conversely, the under is 4-1 in Wichita’s last five road games, 4-1 in the Aggies’ last five at home and 6-1 in the Aggies’ last seven on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH STATE
NBA
Miami (29-27, 28-28 ATS) at Dallas (33-21, 22-32 ATS)
The Mavericks try to continue their dominance of the Heat when they return to American Airlines Center for a rematch of the 2006 NBA Finals.
Miami ran its winning streak to five in a row (SU and ATS) with Friday’s 100-87 double-overtime win at Memphis, cashing as a 6½-point road underdog. The Heat, who outscored the Grizzlies 15-2 in the second OT, played without star guard Dwyane Wade, who injured his calf in Wednesday’s win at New Jersey, and Wade likely will miss this contest as well. The Heat’s 5-0 roll (4-0 on the road) comes on the heels of losing five in a row overall (0-4 on the road) and seven of eight (2-6 ATS). They continue to struggle offensively, as last night’s 100-point effort was just the second time in the last seven games – and the third in the last 11 – that Miami hit the century mark.
Dallas opens a three-game homestand tonight after playing four of its last five games on the road, including last night’s 95-85 upset win at Orlando as a 6½-point road underdog. The Mavs are still just 4-6 SU in their last nine games and 5-14 ATS in their last 19. Their only home game in the last two weeks came on Wednesday, when they beat Phoenix 107-97 and covered as a four-point home favorite. That ended an 0-10 ATS slide at home and an 0-17 ATS slump as a home favorite.
The Mavs lost to the Heat in six games in the 2006 Finals, including dropping the last four in a row after taking Games 1 and 2. Since then, however, Dallas won seven straight meetings (3-3-1 ATS), including a 106-93 rout in Miami as a 1½-point road favorite on Dec. 11. Including the NBA Finals series, the Mavs are 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 head-to-head clashes, but Miami has cashed in four straight in Dallas. In fact, the road team is 9-1-1 ATS and the underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
The Heat have covered in five of their last six against the Western Conference, but they’re otherwise in ATS nosedives of 3-6 against the Southwest Division, 1-5 on Saturday and 2-7 when playing on back-to-back nights. It’s been all negative at the betting window for Dallas, too, as it carries ATS trends of 8-19 overall (5-14 last 19), 6-21 at home (2-17 last 19), 1-6 on Saturday, 3-5 versus the Eastern Conference and 2-6 when facing teams from the Southeast Division.
Miami is on “under” runs of 22-8-1 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 4-0 on Saturday, 6-0-1 when playing on no rest, 9-3 versus the Western Conference and 15-6 against the Southwest Division. Dallas has stayed low in 11 of 15 against the Southeast Division, but the Mavs have topped the total in seven of their last 10 at home, 13 of 19 against Eastern Conference foes and four of five on Saturday.
Finally, the under has hit in six of the last seven Mavs-Heat meetings in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
